Is Trump Popular in America and Around the World?

As of November 2019, the voters that put Trump into office is down to about 8% of all Americans. The 8% represents the percent of all Americans that are likely Republican voters that still have confidence in Trump. Trump's support worldwide is only about 27%. Obama, by contrast, had 72% confidence worldwide in 2016.
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Is Trump popular in America and around the world?

Short answer, No.

Trump’s American Popularity

Within those self-identified Republicans, Trump’s support has gone from 90% to 82% to 74% today. If you take 74% of the remaining Republican party, that means there are roughly 27 million voting Americans still supporting Trump which is only about 8% of all Americans
Let’s dive into the math:

There are 329 million people in America. 138 million voted in 2016.

As of October 1, 2019, only 26% now identify as Republican. The Republican party is shrinking rapidly under Trump and is currently at about 36 million Americans (138 million voters in 2016 x 26% = 36 million).
Note: The polls are slowly trending down for Trump. Very slowly. The new ABC-WAPO poll which has Trump at an approval rate of 74% within the remaining Republican party might be an outlier, but there is a trend worth watching.

Why is the 8% number significant?

The 8% represents the remaining Trump voters in 2016 that put Trump into office and still support him. They are a vocal group, but very small. The 8% represents Trump’s core supporters. Obviously there is soft support, those that will support him as soon as he does something they like. And, there is support among the non-voting population as well.

In fairness to Trump supporters and to be clear, the 8% number does not take into account non-voting supporters, which is kind of unfair because the 8% is based on both voters and non-voters. A more accurate percentage of Trump support would be based on Republican voting Americans only. 27 million voting Americans who self-identify as Republicans of the 139 million voters in 2016 works out to 19.5%. Still, a relatively small number of Americans. 

The Shrinking Republican Party and shrinking Trump supporters within it explain the math as to how Trump is so unpopular–a surprise to Trump and Trump supporters but not to most Americans. Why he is so unpopular is likely because his presidency is ranked by historians as among the worst of all time. Recently, Trump was booed at the World Series. This may explain why many chanted “Lock him up,” whether they chanted in sarcasm, ironically, or out of real dislike and hate or fear. I suspect the reasons are a mix of all those reasons.

Trump’s Worldwide Support “Confidence”

The world population is about 7.6 billion people. The American Trump supporters represent .0035% of the world population. Of course, Trump does have some support around the world. According to PEW research, as of Oct 2018 Trump has only about 27% support around the world which represents about 2 billion people.

Trump versus Obama “Confidence”

In June 2016, Obama was at about 72% worldwide. The world population in 2016 was about 7.4 billion so his 72% approval rating represents about 5.3 billion humans compared to Trump’s 2 billion.

Trump versus Bush “Confidence”

In 2008, Bush was at about 44% worldwide. The world population in 2008 was about 6.7 billion so his 44% approval rating represents about 2.9 billion humans compared to Trump’s 2 billion and Obama’s 5.3 billion.

Trump versus Clinton “Confidence”

In 2000, Clinton was at about 61% worldwide. The world population in 2000 was about 6.1 billion so his 61% approval rating represents about 3.7 billion humans compared to Bush, Jr.’s 2.9 billion humans, compared to Trump’s 2 billion, and Obama’s 5.3 billion.

Worldwide U.S. President Confidence Table

President Year % of Confidence*
Clinton 2000 61%
Bush Jr. 2008 44%
Obama 2016 72%
Trump 2019 27%
*Calculated based on the PEW reports linked above adding together the percent of listed countries and dividing by the number of countries. The true numbers are better for Obama and Clinton, and worse for Bush and Trump. Why? Because the populations in the low confidence countries is much lower than the populations of the high confidence countries.


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