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3 Random Tidbits

Philosophy of Science.

3 random tidbits in about 5 minutes.

1.

A Philosophy of Science Article.

Subject: Terryology.
Bold redefinitions must pass structural and empirical calibration to endure.

Looked at differently.

Creativity begins with questioning definitions. But definitions anchor systems. When foundational terms like zero or multiplication are redefined, the burden of proof rises dramatically. If the new framework collapses internal consistency or breaks alignment with the material world, calibration rejects it. Innovation requires discipline.

Now, the details…

Terryology: Why traditional math holds firm.

In June 2024, I published two 1-minute hot topics addressing what Terrence Howard calls “Terryology.” As his public comments brought attention to questions about zero and multiplication, they also created an opportunity to apply something central to TST philosophy: Idea Evaluation.

The issues raised here are not fundamentally mathematical disputes. They are disputes about definitions, abstraction, and the relationship between rational constructs and the material world.

Let’s explore.

Terryology: An Overview

To evaluate an idea fairly, we must first present it clearly.

Terryology asserts that traditional mathematics is flawed. Howard claims that 1 × 1 should equal 2, arguing that multiplication must always increase value. He also dismisses zero, suggesting it represents metaphysical “nothingness,” which cannot exist — and therefore should not exist in mathematics.

He proposes that these corrections would revolutionize arithmetic and uncover deeper truths about the universe.

Innovation often begins with redefinition. So the first step in Idea Evaluation is not dismissal — it is examination.

The second step is calibration.

The Number Zero 

Howard argues that zero cannot exist because “nothingness” cannot exist.

This is an ancient philosophical tension.

In 30 Philosophers, zero is treated as a narrative pivot — a conceptual breakthrough that reshaped human thought. Aristotle struggled with it. Ancient systems lacked it. Calendars still lack a year zero.

The absence of zero is first represented in the telling of the story of ancient Eastern philosophy using the earliest well-known female philosopher, Gargi Vachaknavi from around 800 BCE. The book tells the story of human thought from 2600 BCE to today and it’s true that the concept of zero is a strange concept.

Later, in chapter 9 which is set in time about 350 BCE, Aristotle is used to frame how the ancients thought about such topics. 

“I think a key concept in how Aristotle approached life is demonstrated by his thoughts on zero and infinity. Aristotle was an empiricist, a “show me” guy. So, math concepts like zero and negative numbers just did not register with him—humanity had yet to define our modern concepts of them, sure, but beyond that he was pragmatic. And yes, he knew what “nothing” was, but it was a matter of logic, not mathematics. And he knew what it meant when one person owed another person two chickens, but that wasn’t a negative number in his world, it was a positive two chickens owed. When paid, the debt didn’t go to zero, the debt just went away.”

In a sense, Terryology is suggesting we return to thinking of zero as a logic problem, not a math one.

In the next chapter on skepticism, I talk about the use of zero as a placeholder pivot from positive to negative like this:

“Why didn’t we have a year zero, and why don’t we have one now? The short answer is we should. In our society, the concept of 0 is well understood, but it is indeed an odd concept – counting nothing as a step. It wasn’t common in Europe until around the 12th century, when it was introduced through the works of scholars who translated Arabic mathematical texts. The adoption of the Arabic numeral system, which included the concept of zero, eventually replaced the Roman numeral system. To be precise, the Roman numeral system today still does not have a character for zero. It was never added.

All calendars today still lack a zero year with the exception of the astronomical year numbering system, which includes a year 0 to facilitate calculations across the BCE divide.”

Later, in chapter 16, the story of the Islamic Golden Age is told. The story of how a few centuries earlier in India, circa the 5th century, the modern concept of zero was discovered. That part of the story is told like this:

“Imagine a world without zero: you show anyone three rocks and take two away, they know you now have one rock. You take that rock away and you have nothing. They know it, it’s not hard. Now let’s have an ancient mathematician keep track. The first calculation, “3-2=1″ is easy. But when you take the last rock away, they understand the absence, but to them it shifts to a logic problem. The rocks are no longer something of concern.”

A few paragraphs later I define it like this:

“Zero is both a number that represents the absence of quantity, and it is the point between positive and negative. It also serves as a placeholder in our numbering system, allowing us to distinguish between numbers like 10 and 100. It’s also a fulcrum around mathematical operations. It opened up the door for the development of negative numbers, which were scattered in some cultures but became coherent with the advent of zero. Before zero, number systems, and calendars, started at 1. If the number 0 had been available to the ancients, we would have the much-needed “year zero” in our calendars today. Zero opened the door to new realms of thought. It’s a poignant reminder that sometimes, the most transformative ideas are those that fill a void we didn’t even know was there.”

Zero is both a number that represents the absence of quantity, and it is the point between positive and negative. It also serves as a placeholder in our numbering system, allowing us to distinguish between numbers like 10 and 100…

Zero did not emerge because humans were confused. It emerged because abstraction matured.

TST makes a critical distinction here:

Metaphysical nothingness is a philosophical problem.
Numerical zero is a structural tool.
Zero does not claim that “nothing exists.” It encodes absence relative to a defined quantity.

If you remove a bowl from someone, they possess zero bowls. That does not mean reality vanished. It means the measurable quantity is absent.

The question is not whether zero is “physically real.”
The question is whether zero preserves coherence in arithmetic, algebra, measurement, and engineering.

It does.

Multiplication: 1 x 1=1 (not 2)

Howard claims that 1 × 1 should equal 2 because multiplication should always increase value.

Here we see the key philosophical issue: redefining a term based on intuition.

Speculation is the first step of innovation. Many breakthroughs begin by asking, “What if we’ve defined this wrong?”

But the second step is structural testing.

Multiplication is formally defined as scaling — applying a factor to a quantity.

Scaling can:

  • Preserve magnitude (×1)
  • Eliminate magnitude (×0)
  • Reduce magnitude (×0.5)
  • Increase magnitude (×2)

If 1 × 1 were 2, arithmetic collapses. Counting fails. Engineering equations fail. The distributive law fails. The system no longer aligns with the material world.

In TST terms, this is not a failure of creativity. It is a failure of calibration.

Fundamentally, there is a relationship between ideas and the world around us. In chapter 18 of my 30 Philosophers book, this relationship is introduced with the Idea of Ideas. In it, rational ideas about our empirical observations, is put like this:

“Take, for example, math and geometry: they provide frameworks to describe objects. Picture two rocks and two shells on a beach. You might recognize “equivalence,” a Rational Idea, between the two rocks and the two shells. If these items form a pattern resembling a square, the Rational Idea of “square” emerges. Similarly, if they form an “L,” an “L shape” becomes relevant.” 

Later in the same chapter, the the realm of the possible is presented:

“The idea of equivalence in our mind is possible only because the physical universe can be configured in a way that brings meaning to the idea. The idea that two shells is equal to two rocks in number was around, and possible, long before humans saw equality. “

Our ideas stem from provable empirical data. While anyone can have an idea, it cannot ignore the empirical world we live in.

Howard’s error likely stems from a misunderstanding or misapplication of arithmetic operations and possibly a rigid personal-use of terminology. He insists words mean one thing when they actually have several meanings. While debunking Terryology is needed for the review process of science, it also reinforces the importance of adhering to established mathematical definitions and principles. By doing both questioning and reinforcing, we uphold the integrity of mathematical truths and ensure clear, accurate understanding of fundamental concepts.

The Deeper Issue: Idea Evaluation

Terryology is not primarily a mathematical challenge. It is a philosophical one.

The tension lies here:

  1. Can we redefine foundational terms?
  2. What happens after we do?

TST encourages bold ideas. It does not discourage speculation.

But speculation must pass three filters:

  • Structural coherence (Does the system remain internally consistent?)
  • Empirical alignment (Does it correspond with the material world?)
  • Explanatory power (Does it clarify more than it obscures?)

When definitions are altered without preserving those three constraints, the result is not revolution — it is instability.

On Fame and Authority

Fame amplifies ideas. It does not validate them.

Appeals to authority, linguistic reframing, and semantic shifts can create the appearance of depth. But philosophy and science rely on disciplined evaluation, not rhetorical force.

The goal is not to dismiss unconventional thinking. The goal is to test it.

Terrence tends to use many logical fallacies in his attempts to persuade. While he employs the appeal to authority fallacy by using his fame and referencing historical figures like Pythagoras and Einstein, he primarily relies on what I categorize as linguistic trickery. Specifically, Howard’s arguments often hinge on redefining terms and using convoluted explanations to make his ideas appear more plausible than they are, distracting from the lack of empirical evidence and logical coherence.

How TST Evaluates Radical Redefinitions

Radical ideas are not dismissed. They are tested. When someone proposes redefining a foundational concept, TST applies a three-stage filter:

  1. Structural Coherence: Does the new definition preserve logical consistency across the system? Or does it create contradictions in arithmetic, algebra, geometry, or applied domains?
  2. Empirical Alignment: Do the results still correspond to measurable reality? Can the framework still model counting, scaling, engineering, or physics accurately?
  3. Explanatory Gain: Does the redefinition clarify more than it obscures? Does it increase predictive power? Or merely reframe language?

If the new idea passes these tests, it strengthens the system. If it fails, the original structure stands. TST welcomes speculation. It simply insists that speculation be calibrated.

Conclusion: Terryology as a Case Study in TST

Terryology is useful — not as mathematics, but as a teaching moment.

It illustrates:

  • The difference between intuition and definition.
  • The difference between metaphysical speculation and mathematical abstraction.
  • The necessity of calibration between rational ideas and empirical structure.

Innovation begins with bold questioning.
It survives only when it aligns with reality.

That is not hostility to creativity.
It is respect for coherence.

 


That Philosophy of Science Article, 

was first published on TST 2 years ago.

The flashcard inspired by it is this.

Front: What does multiplication formally represent?
Back: Factoring.

 

2.

A Philosophy of Science Article.

Subject: TST Philosophy.
TST Theory of Truth asks: What makes an idea true? Truth is successful alignment between our representations and a determinate, mind-independent reality.

At its core.

The TST Theory of Truth states that reality is not negotiable. Our descriptions are. Truth happens when a proposition aligns with how things actually are — not when it feels coherent, useful, or widely accepted. Coherence constrains thinking. Pragmatism tests survival. But correspondence anchors everything. We aim at the world; we do not create it.

Now, the details…

In academic terms, TST affirms a correspondence view of truth grounded in mind-independent reality. Truth concerns the relation between propositions and the aspects of reality they purport to describe. A proposition is true when it successfully corresponds to the relevant feature, structure, or state of affairs in the world.

At the same time, TST rejects the idea that human thought can exhaustively mirror reality. Our access to the world is partial, situated, and revisable. For that reason, our epistemic grasp of truth is best understood as progressive alignment: our ideas can move closer to reality through evidence, reason, correction, and testing, but they never become a complete copy of reality itself.

Let’s explore and define.

Introduction: Truth is Definable

Truth is not a mood. It is not consensus. It is not usefulness. It is not cultural agreement. It is not coherence alone.

Truth concerns reality.

TST affirms a correspondence account of truth grounded in a mind-independent material world.

Reality exists whether or not it is perceived, described, or understood.

Propositions are true when they correspond to reality.

Our grasp of that correspondence is always partial and revisable. This alignment is not exhaustive mirroring. It is not total capture. Human descriptions are partial, structured, and revisable. But partial does not mean arbitrary. A statement about the world either corresponds to how things are, or it does not.

The distinction between truth and justification is central. Truth is not what we currently believe. Truth is not what we can presently prove. Truth is not what survives debate. Those are epistemic conditions. Truth concerns the way things actually are.

TST therefore maintains:

  • Reality exists independently of minds.
  • Propositions aim to represent that reality.
  • A proposition is true if it corresponds to the relevant state of affairs.
  • Human access to truth is fallible and revisable.

Absolute reality exists. Absolute descriptions do not.

This distinction preserves both realism and humility. The world does not bend to our models. Our models bend toward the world.

Truth is correspondence.
Justification is provisional.
Knowledge is disciplined alignment over time.

That is the core position.

Absolute Truth vs. Absolute Reality

TST affirms absolute reality. It does not affirm human possession of absolute truth.

Reality exists independently of perception, language, or theory. The mass of an object, the charge of an electron, the curvature of spacetime — these are not contingent on belief. They are features of the world as it is.

But human descriptions are never exhaustive. Every proposition abstracts. Every model simplifies. Every theory isolates structure while ignoring other layers. A statement may be true while still capturing only a limited aspect of reality. This often appears as being true within a scope. Newton’s laws are true within the scope of the large, even though they are not complete. Ideas capture some aspect of reality, but never in totality.

To speak of “absolute truth” as something humans possess is misleading. Absolute truth would imply a complete, final, and perfectly comprehensive description of reality. TST rejects that claim.

However, TST does affirm that reality itself is determinate and mind-independent: objective reality in traditional scientific terms. The material world exists in definite ways, governed by consistent structure. Propositions do not create this structure; they succeed or fail in representing it.

Thus, what is absolute is not our descriptions, but the world those descriptions aim to represent.

Truth and Justification

Truth concerns whether an idea aligns with reality. Truth is categorical: an idea is empirically true, rationally true, or false. Justification concerns our responsible human judgment about that truth. It combines two things: the category we assign to the idea, and the degree of confidence we have in that assignment.

TST distinguishes:

  • Absolute reality: the way things are, independent of minds.
  • Truth: successful correspondence between a proposition and that reality.
  • Truth confidence: our current, fallible assessment that such correspondence holds.
  • Justified belief: our current, fallible assessment that such correspondence holds.

Reality is absolute.
Truth is relational.
Justification is provisional.

This preserves realism without epistemic arrogance. The world does not depend on us. Our understanding always does.

This brings us to the statement:

Empirical precedes rational.

This means empirical contact precedes rational construction in the development of knowledge. In the growth of human knowledge, empirical impressions come first. Rational ideas are built from those impressions as minds begin to organize, compare, infer, and abstract. The structures already exist in the material world, but the rational idea of them does not arise without contact.

Conclusion: TST Explicits

TST is explicit about its commitments.

  • Truth is correspondence to a mind-independent material world.
  • Coherence constrains internal consistency.
  • Pragmatic survivability functions as a testing mechanism.

But truth is not reducible to consensus.

  • It is not reducible to coherence.
  • It is not reducible to what “works.”

Truth concerns reality.

TST does not claim that statements capture the thing-in-itself, possess total structural knowledge, or represent a complete ontology. Truth is not exhaustive mirroring. It is structured, fallible alignment within epistemic limits.

What TST affirms is simpler and stronger:

  • There is something in reality.
  • Our statements and models describe aspects of it.
  • Descriptions succeed or fail relative to that reality.
  • Justification and confidence are graded. Truth is not.
  • Total capture is impossible — because words are not the thing.

TST therefore rejects:

  • Naïve correspondence, because truth is not exhaustive mirroring.
  • Pure coherence theories, because internal consistency alone does not secure contact with reality.
  • Pragmatism alone, because practical success does not determine what is the case.
  • Deflationism, because truth is not merely a linguistic convenience but a relation to how the world is.

It affirms instead a disciplined realism:

Truth is the success condition of representation relative to mind-independent reality, constrained by logic and tested empirically.

A truth recipe.

  1. To understand truth, you must first accept that objective reality exists and does not change to match thought.
  2. Absolute truth belongs to objective reality, not thought.
  3. Objective reality precedes thought.
  4. Confidence in truth is a degree of alignment with objective reality.
  5. To assess a claim, you must first decide whether it falls within the empirical or the rational. Empirical ideas describe the material world directly, rational indirectly.
  6. If an idea is irrational, it does not describe the material world at all. It is speculation and must be treated that way at least in a logical setting. In TST, empirical, rational, and irrational are not insults or praise words. They are framing categories.

Reality is determinate.
Truth is relational.
Justification is provisional.

That is the structure.

 


That Philosophy of Science Article, 

was first published on TST 2 months ago.

The flashcard inspired by it is this.

Front: What type of belief is a current, fallible assessment in which correspondence to reality holds?
Back: Justified belief.

 

3.

A Philosophy of Science Article.

At its core.

Anti-vaxxers sound louder than they are. Why? Negativity bias: outrage spreads faster than calm facts. Echo chambers: small groups amplify until they sound huge. And finally, identity: for some, it’s who they are, not just what they think. Most people worldwide still support vaccines — the loudest voices just echo the most.

Now, the details…

About 10% of Americans believe vaccines cause autism. That’s about 33 million Americans. In a country where we believe so many easily proven wrong conspiracies and theories with no or little evidence, I wish more believed in and followed the scientific method. I guess I should not be surprised that so many believe the things they believe. After all, we Americans believe weird stuff! 

  • 80% believe in angels (182 million Americans)
  • 60% believe in ghosts (200 million Americans)
  • 24% believe in Astrology (80 million Americans)
  • 15% believe in numerology (50 million Americans)
  • 10% believe vaccines cause autism (33 million Americans)
  • 7% believe the CIA killed Kennedy (23 million Americans)
  • 6% believe the moon landing was faked (20 million Americans)
  • 50,000 Americans follow Scientology

I’d like to stick up for the scientific method as the anti-vaxxer movement tends to propagate misleading and false propaganda. As always, I’m open to valid arguments using facts, but I think the hysteria around this subject does a disadvantage to science and to society.

First, agreement with a part of the anti-vaxxer movement. I agree that reviewing the CDC schedule and spreading out vaccines to reduce risk is a valid thing to do. This does not mean I agree that we should spread out vaccines more, but it does mean it is worth looking at and updating continuously as the science changes.

The Anti-Vaxxer Movement

The following is a list of anti-vaxxer movement claims along with a short answer:

  • Vaccines cause autism and/or brain damage.
    • Answer: There is no link between vaccines and autism.
  • Although the CDC claims the science is settled, here is a study they conveniently ignore.
    • Answer: Science is not about finding an outlier study and proclaiming it the winner.
  • Even the most rudimentary of studies shows far better childhood and adult health in nations who are NOT mandating mercury and aluminum poisoning of innocent children.
    • Answer: Not true. Vaccines no longer have significant mercury nor aluminum in them. You get more of each every day from the food you eat.
  • Vaccines are a money-driven, baby-killing agenda for the exclusive benefit of fascist psychopaths in big pharma and government.
    • Answer: Science can drive scientists, but that’s true on both sides of any issue. Meaning, any scientist on Earth can make money by disproving bad science. That’s a good thing. As for baby killing, you’re wrong. Just look at any cemetery with headstones prior to vaccines.
  • The USA has paid out billions through the National Vaccine Injury Compensation Program which completely indemnifies the drug companies from the many murders and disabling injuries they cause to innocent American children.
    • Answer: Hyperbolic, but true. However, the statistically small risks from vaccines is much lower than the large risks of not vaccinating.  
  • Doctors are complicit and paid well for ensuring their patients get all their expensive poisons.
    • Answer:  Doctors recommend vaccinations every year because the viruses adapt and mutate so new vaccines are needed to build immunity against them.
  • All vaccines ultimately weaken the human race.
    • Answer: Kind of true, but vaccines simply improve your natural immune system’s ability to fight specific viruses. It is true that if you let viruses run wild, our natural ability as a herd to fight the virus would likely win, eventually, but that might take many centuries and way too many deaths.

Is the anti-vaxxer movement advocating for no vaccines? Or vaccines with no aluminum? Or, allow people to choose which one or none?

Is there mercury in today’s vaccines?

Regarding mercury in vaccines, the FDA removed most mercury from vaccines in 1999. The preservative thimerosal has trace amounts of mercury. The childhood vaccines that used to contain thimerosal as a preservative are now put into single-dose vials, so no preservative is needed. The only childhood vaccines today that have trace amounts of thimerosal are one DTaP and one DTaP-Hib combination vaccine. The extremely small amounts of mercury are left over from the manufacturing and well below other sources of mercury in your diet.

Is there dangerous levels of aluminum in today’s vaccines?

There might be a yet found problem with vaccines, but it’s clear the problem is not with aluminum.

Even if there is a problem, I don’t think giving up on vaccines is an option either. Go to any cemetery and look at the headstones before 1950 and after 1960. You will see that prior to 1950 there were many baby headstones. After 1960 there are hardly any. That’s when people started vaccinating their kids. The advantage of vaccines is literally written in stone.

By the way, aluminum is found in numerous foods and beverages including fruits and vegetables, beer and wine, seasonings, flour, cereals, nuts, dairy products, baby formulas, and honey. Today and every day you will ingest 7 to 9 milligrams of aluminum per day which is down from about 24 mg/day in 1992. Even today, you will consume up to about 95 mg in a single day.

You wouldn’t, but if you got EVERY vaccine with aluminum in it in one day, you would add only 6.7 mg to today’s dose of aluminum.

  • Pneumococcal vaccine = 0.125 mg/dose
  • Diphtheria-tetanus-acellular pertussis (DTaP) vaccine < 0.625 mg/dose
  • Haemophilus influenzae type b (Hib) vaccine = 0.225 mg/dose
  • Hepatitis A vaccine (Hep A) = 0.25 mg/dose (pediatrics) 0.5 mg/dose (adults)
  • Hepatitis B vaccine (Hep B) = 0.5 mg/dose (pediatrics), 0.5 mg/dose (adults)
  • Hep A/Hep B vaccine = 0.45 mg/dose
  • DTaP/inactivated polio/Hep B vaccine < 0.85 mg/dose
  • DTaP/inactivated polio/Hib vaccine = 0.33 mg/dose
  • Human Papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine = 0.5 mg/dose
  • Japanese Encephalitis (JE) vaccine = 0.25 mg/dose
  • Meningococcal B vaccine = 0.25 – 0.52 mg/dose
  • Td vaccine < 0.53 – 1.5 mg/dose
  • Tdap vaccine = 0.33 – 0.39 mg/dose

Is the CDC a Trusted Authority?

Should we believe the CDC? I currently consider the CDC to be a trusted source, a good authority, so I tend to believe statements like the following,

“The CDC says there is no link between vaccines and autism, therefore vaccines do not cause autism.”

Although I tend to believe statements from the CDC, the statement itself is not a valid argument. Even though they are a good authority using a scientific process, they still might be wrong. If someone says to me, “that’s an appeal to authority logical fallacy”, I have to agree with them because it is.

Although I personally tend to believe what the CDC says, I am open to any valid argument that links vaccines to autism, but, so far, I have seen no compelling evidence. My assumption is that the CDC uses a scientific process to come up with conclusions and that they are not swayed by unscientific pressures. Furthermore, I believe that anyone can prove them wrong with a single valid argument. Finally, I believe the CDC will correct themselves if proven wrong and evolve to a new truth once presented with a valid argument.

Do vaccines weaken the human race?

Anti-vaxxers sometimes advocate for giving up on all vaccines and say:

“All vaccines ultimately weaken the human race.”

That statement is kind of true, but it’s also a red herring logical fallacy, a distraction. Anyone can say that about all medicines and medical procedures. Every medical procedure weakens our gene pool or slows its progress to a stronger gene pool. Is anyone really advocating for no medical industry? Anytime you fix a broken bone that allows that person to grow up and reproduce, you’ve prevented an opportunity for those with stronger bones that did not break to reproduce. If you have a kid with a heart problem, do you have an operation and get him fixed? Or, do you let him die in order to improve the gene pool?

Vaccines simply improve your natural immune system’s ability to fight specific viruses. That’s true whether you are infected by the virus or get a vaccine. Sometimes the virus increases your immune system better and longer, and sometimes an infection does, but both usually increase your immunity. It is true that if you let viruses run wild, our natural ability to fight the virus as a herd would eventually win but that might take many centuries and many deaths and there is a chance of a virus mutation leading to the extinction of humanity. A virus like ebola that that mutated in a way to make it just twice as deadly and twice as infectious would likely wipe out humanity if left to run wild.

I found a study that says vaccines may cause a problem!

Remember, science is not about finding an outlier study and proclaiming it the winner and it is disingenuous to take an outlier study and conflate it in support of a cause using drive-by propaganda techniques. If that study actually deserves to win, other studies will back it up. Until then, let’s go with the best studies available.

Herd Immunity is not Perfect…

…but don’t throw the imperfect out in pursuit of the perfect.

No one is saying herd immunity is perfect, just that it’s an important factor that should not be ignored if you are otherwise healthy. Meaning, consider getting vaccinated so you don’t kill someone else who just could not.

1. Old folks are sometimes asked to get two shots “just in case” because the flu vaccine is only about 60% effective in helping your body build up a lifelong immunity to a specific strain. It has nothing to do with lasting 6 months. Getting it twice just gives you two shots at the 60% success rate.

2. It is true that for most people their immune system weakens as they get older. Doctors frequently recommend older people get a second booster shot in order to stimulate their immune system more and give them a better shot at immunity to specific viruses.

3. Doctors recommend vaccinations every year because the flu virus is in a constant state of adaptation and mutation rendering older vaccines obsolete for the current strain even some do indeed last for your lifetime and will help protect you against related strains and even generally increase your immune system.

4. Immunity to a specific strain is usually lifelong and it frequently helps with related strains.

And yes, there are strains like smallpox that you can get multiple times, but usually our immune system kicks ass…for a lifetime! Meaning, if you get a flu shot every year, you will avoid many dozens of flu strains for life. The problem is that the flu constantly evolves so it “feels” like it’s not for life because you may only encounter a particular strain once in your life either from a vaccine or the live version.

5. Researchers from the CDC, FDA, WHO, and NIH analyze global data on circulating influenza strains in humans and animal populations. Scientists map disease trends and identify the three or four strains most likely to hit during the upcoming flu season. This is a continuous and constant process.

How Flu Shots Work

1. Regarding yearly flu shots. Essentially, the experts pick 2 to 5 strains of flu they “think” will make the rounds “next year”. If they’re wrong, the flu shots were still not a waste because of the immunity for later years.

2. It’s true that when you build immunity to many influenza strains, it can last for life. Meaning, if you get a flu shot every year, you add to your immunity and over many years, you will be more resistant to more influenza strains when compared to someone who did not, or could not, get the shots.

3. My understanding is that we don’t know if humans can build a lasting immunity to Covid-19 yet. Once a vaccine is available, it may last a few years or for life. Most believe it will likely be for life.

4. Herd immunity will kick in either way. Meaning, if we get the vaccine or 30% to 60% get infected over the next few years, those folks will protect those that cannot get the vaccine because of age or health reasons.

Should I vaccinate Yearly?

 
If you get the flu shot every year, your immune system will protect you in three important ways: against those specific strains for life nearly as well as a flu infection, plus some related strains for life, and overall improvement in your immune system so that you can fight off unrelated viruses of ALL TYPES, not just influenza.

Vaccines Get Weaker Over Time

Yes, as you age and your health declines, your immune system can get weaker generally, but it’s bad logic to conflate the effectiveness of a successful vaccine shot with ineffective shots and the decline of your immune system overall.
Those with more “exercised” immune systems during their life have a stronger immune system than those with a less exercised immune system.
 
When one reads a statement like this…
Your body’s immunity to the flu decreases over time. This is true whether you’ve had a vaccination or a flu infection.
That translates into this…
Your body’s immunity to [all future strains of] the flu decreases over time [mainly because the flu strain itself is constantly evolving, but also because your immune system may decline generally as you age]. This is true whether you’ve had a vaccination or a flu infection. [Meaning, you have the antibodies in your system from a successful vaccine shot or flu infection, but both are specific to a strain of the flu even though they also help generally, but with age comes a weaker immune system.]
A few details:
 
1. Regarding two shots for the elderly per year. I found that the 60% effective rate is an average success rate for the elderly. Meaning, for some elderly it’s very high, and that also means that for younger healthier folks, vaccines are more than 60% effective. That’s the reason for the sometimes recommendation for elderly to get two a year. Again, nothing to do with the “it worked” category.
 
2. A better immune system from all vaccines and all “real colds” helps to reduce symptoms from ALL ILLNESSES in which your immune system has an impact.
 
3. It is illogical to conflate effective rate of a vaccine with the benefits for the % where it works.
 
4. The CDC presents vaccine effectiveness (VE) as a single point estimate such as 60% which is WAY too generic for the discussion we are having. This point estimate represents the reduction in risk provided by the flu vaccine that year.
 
5. There are studies that show more antibodies in those that got the real virus, vs those that got the vaccine, but remember that any one vaccine flu shot is about 60% effective on average. I’m still looking for a study that took that into account.
 
6. Regarding protection for specific strains for life, you were right, for some strains it declines over life, for some it’s just as effective, and for some your immune system just can’t fight it.
 
In general, although you can get things like smallpox multiple times in your life, you cannot get the exact same strain of the flu twice.
 
https://www.healthline.com/health/cold-flu/how-long-does-flu-shot-last#takeaway
 

The Scientific Method

The scientific method is a process driven by many things including the desire to fix something, knowledge, fame, and/or money. There are many scientists in the world trying to make a name for themselves. If there is a problem with our vaccines, our scientists will find it.

In science, you put forth a theory. Construct experiments to prove or disprove it. You publish your findings. Other scientists try to prove you wrong so they can make a name. If they agree, they support you and get “a little” glory but not as much as if they struck you down. Also, they try to add to the theory if they can. If a scientist gets it wrong, the theory is dropped.

One of the best facts in support of the scientific method is the fact that…

The scientific process is nearly exactly the same in every country, all over Earth.

Understanding and following the scientific method can help one get closer to the truth. Science represents the best estimate of truth based on current evidence. Although science is a quest for truth, it does not represent truth itself. It is a tool at our ready for analyzing the physical world. The conclusions of science represent the best estimate of our physical world and is based on current evidence. In a confusing world, science represents the truth, at least until a fact is proven wrong or an argument is invalidated.

 


That Philosophy of Science Article, 

was first published on TST 6 years ago.

The flashcard inspired by it is this.

 

The end. Refresh for another set.

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