Human presence on Mars will transition from science fiction to reality with the successful establishment of the first permanent Martian colony.

Analysis: While initial crewed missions to Mars could potentially occur by 2029 or early 2030s, achieving a fully self-sustaining, permanent colony will take a bit longer. While 2033 is a bit overly ambitious, it is possible. A more realistic timeline for a sustainable colony is by 2039, but very likely by 2045. And, the first long-term human presence on Mars will likely be in subsurface habitats carved into lava tubes, not domes.

Companies like SpaceX are already targeting an early timeframe. Even the United Arab Emirates’ plan to establish a settlement on Mars, well, by 2117, but that goal brings a certain reality to the project. NASA’s current plans to return astronauts to the lunar surface in 2024 and establish a sustainable presence on the lunar surface by 2028 also bring this project to the forefront. NASA’s goal it to send humans to Mars in the 2030s supporting the prediction of self-sustaining space exploration station by 2039.