By Natural Philosopher Mike Prestwood
Timeline Story

Alien Communication Expected Date

Alien Communication Expected Date

Absolute Years From Now: 2300
Story Reference Date: 03/28/2024
12 Generations From Now (from 2020 CE)

The estimate of 300 years from now, give or take a century, marks a speculative point when we might reasonably expect a response from extraterrestrial life. This prediction takes the centennial anniversary of the Arecibo message into account, a significant milestone in human history. It was the first high-powered, targeted broadcasts sent into space. As our signals continue to radiate outward and our listening technologies improve, the coming centuries represent a hopeful window for making the first contact, according to the complex calculations inspired by the Fermi Paradox. It takes into account the vastness of space, signal decay over immense distances, and the relatively short time humans have been sending out detectable signals. It also factors in variables like the advanced civilizations’ emergence, technological capabilities, and the likelihood of their signals or ours traversing the vast interstellar distances successfully.

Prior to us sending out interesting light signals, the chances of extraterrestrial life deciding to visit us was small. Within 100 light-years, it’s estimated there might be 100,000 planets. Space is vast so making such a long journey without seeing interesting light or another “signal” is not likely. All this means, the longer we send out light, especially in the form of radio waves and directed communication, the better the odds we can make contact.

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