The big picture is simple: energy is energy. Right now, largely because of the incentives and excesses within big business, we are hooked on oil. But addictions are not destinies. We don’t have to stay here. For more than a century, our reliance on oil has increased year after year. Still, trends don’t run forever. A tipping point is approaching. Sometime near the end of this decade, around 2029, we are likely to see the first sustained decline in oil use, marking the moment when alternative energy begin to take the lead.