The barrels per day of oil used by humanity have been on the rise since its discovery in the mid-19th century. In 1950, the world consumed approximately 10 million barrels of oil per day. This figure rose significantly to about 60 million barrels per day by 1980 and further to around 75 million barrels per day by 2000. In 2019, just before the pandemic, global oil consumption peaked at about 99.7 million barrels per day. During the pandemic, consumption dipped, but it rebounded quickly. By 2023, global oil consumption reached approximately 102.21 million barrels per day, and it is expected to continue rising until around 2029, when it is projected to peak at about 105.7 million barrels per day. From this peak, oil consumption is anticipated to enter a gradual terminal decline. This plateauing of oil demand marks a significant turning point in the global energy narrative.
Analysis: The reference year 2029 is significant due to a convergence of technological, economic, and environmental factors. The rapid growth in electric vehicle adoption, improving fuel economy standards, and an increasing emphasis on renewable energy are collectively reducing the reliance on fossil fuels. Additionally, geopolitical factors and policy changes aimed at reducing carbon emissions are accelerating this transition. While the IEA’s forecast is for a peak in 2028, demand for oil in sectors like petrochemicals and aviation will remain robust. Therefore, I’m predicting the tipping point will occur one year later, with a fudge factor of +/- 2 years.
My Strategy:
Invest in DUG inverse oil ETF at 30 day lows through 2035.
Invest in ICLN and CNRG solar ETFs at 30 day lows through 2035.
Invest in NEE and ENPH renewable stocks at 30 day lows through 2035.
Do not short large oil as they have the money to retool.
