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Why is “inductive” reasoning not as reliable as deductive?

Sun 23 Jun 2024
Published 2 years ago.
Updated 2 days ago.
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Why is “inductive” reasoning not as reliable as deductive?

Induction identifies patterns, deduction identifies conclusions. Both are valuable, but yes, you can trust deductions more. Deductive reasoning focuses on evaluating the validity of each premise. If the premises are true, the conclusion is true. It’s a strict logical path.

And yes, you believe conclusions based on inductive reasoning; however, it’s more of a trust but verify thing. Trust inductive reasoning until the pattern breaks. Believe the conclusions from inductive reasoning so long as the pattern holds up, which frequently just means we keep looking. In 30 Philosophers, I describe this middle viewpoint as the empiricist lens. The other two lenses are the believer and the skeptic.

The third major type of reasoning is abductive, which is really just a best guess. Guesses are okay, but geez, they always need follow up. I suggest you hold abductive conclusions with humility. For example, if your staying in a cabin in California, and you hear hooves outside, a reasonable guess is that there are horses outside. That’s abductive reasoning. But heck, it could be donkeys or even zebras, but you’re in California, so it’s more likely horses. However, do look. You have to. Sometimes you’re surprised by a few zebras.

Now, to be clear, even with inductive reasoning you’re making an educated guess. But this guess is stronger, more direct. You notice patterns from past direct observations and assume it will be the same when you look again. If the Sun has risen every day of your life, that’s a pretty strong pattern. Chances are it’s going to rise tomorrow.

— map / TST —

Deep-Dive Article: Types of Inference: Deductive, Inductive, and Abductive
Inductive reasoning is less reliable because it generalizes from limited observations. Even if the pattern looks strong, a new example can break it. Deductive reasoning is more dependable because, if the premises are true and the logic is valid, the conclusion has to be true. Induction suggests. Deduction guarantees.
Michael Alan Prestwood
Author & Natural Philosopher
Prestwood writes on science-first philosophy, with particular attention to the convergence of disciplines. Drawing on his TST Framework, his work emphasizes rational inquiry grounded in empirical observation while engaging questions at the edges of established knowledge. With TouchstoneTruth positioned as a living touchstone, this work aims to contribute reliable, evolving analysis in an emerging AI era where the credibility of information is increasingly contested.
The Prestwood Column
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Column Research….
1. Timeline Story
The famous Lewis “Truth in Fiction” Paper
2. Linked Quote
“Truth is stranger than fiction…[which] is obliged to stick to possibilities;”
3. Science FAQ »
Why does fiction feel real?
4. Philosophy FAQ »
Can authors create fiction beyond our universe?
5. Critical Thinking FAQ »
How do we know what is true in a fictional world?
6. History FAQ!
What is the history of philosophy of fiction?
Bonus Deep-Dive Article
TST Philosophy of Fiction: Imaginative Realism

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