We experience the world through patterns—drop a ball, and it falls. Light a fire, and it burns. But does that mean cause and effect are certain?
Scottish philosopher David Hume didn’t think so. He pointed out that just because something always happens in our experience doesn’t mean it must happen. We assume the sun will rise tomorrow because it always has—but that assumption is based on habit, not certainty.
This is where critical thinking steps in. When we say one thing “causes” another, are we identifying a true cause or just a correlation? Is there hidden complexity? Could an unseen factor be at play?
Instead of assuming cause and effect as absolute, critical thinkers demand evidence, logic, and skepticism before drawing conclusions. So next time you hear “X causes Y,” pause. Ask: Is this a certainty, or just a strong habit of thought?
In the TST Framework, “Is cause and effect certain?” falls under Logical Analysis and Evidence-Based Reasoning, challenging assumptions about causation and requiring scrutiny of whether observed patterns indicate certainty or mere correlation. It also ties into the Mind Trap of Assumption, where people mistake repeated events for causal relationships without verifying underlying mechanisms. Critical thinkers must question, test, and demand evidence before accepting cause-effect claims.